The Ma administration in Taiwan argues that Taiwan is in the imminent risk of marginalization in the world trading system because China and ASEAN will form a free trade area （hereinafter referred to as 「ASEAN plus China」）in 2010, and also because Taiwan has failed to establish any free trade agreement（hereinafter referred to as 「FTA」）with major trading nations like the United States and Japan. In order to prevent Taiwan from that alleged marginalization, the Ma administration proposes eagerly to sign Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement（hereinafter referred to as 「ECFA」）with China. By this way, the Ma administration thinks that Taiwanese products can be transshipped into ASEAN countries via China.1 In addition, the Ma administration further thinks that signing ECFA with China not only can normalize the trade relations with China, but also can greatly increase the opportunity to sign FTA with the United States.
The above arguments are not persuasive. First, under the WTO regime, WTO trade is normal, FTA trade is abnormal, i.e., is an exception to the principle of most favored nation treatment（a bifurcation of the principle of non-discrimination）.2 So, in order to normalize trade relations with China, what we need to do is to implement WTO rules with China, not to sign ECFA with it. Second, Taiwans failure to sign FTA with the United States has some causes.
The main cause for that is Chinas objection. Most of the top 100 U.S. enterprises have invested in China, and China exercises pressure on these enterprises through tax measures or operation licenses, asking them to stop congressmen who have received their financial supports from supporting any FTA proposals with Taiwan.3 Third, Taiwans trade history has provided us with empirical evidences that Taiwan will not be marginalized by the mere establishment of ASEAN plus China. This article relies on relevant WTO rules （law）and Taiwans trade history （historic facts）, reviewing Taiwans trade history in retrospect, observing Taiwans present environments in the world, and foreseeing Taiwans prospects in the future. It concludes that Taiwan will not be marginalized even without singing EFCA with China and that, to the contrary, Taiwan will become Chinas frontier if EFCA is really signed.